• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 29 21:47:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292147
    SPC MCD 292146=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1953
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021

    Areas affected...portions of lower Michigan

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 292146Z - 300245Z

    SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to move
    across Lake Michigan this evening producing occasional snow rates of
    1 to 1.5 inches per hour.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a large
    area of moderate to heavy stratiform precipitation from northeastern
    Wisconsin to the eastern shores of Lake Michigan. Associated with a
    fast-moving shortwave trough in northwest flow, this precipitation
    will move southeast with time into portions of lower Michigan.
    Forcing for ascent while not overly strong is forecast to increase=20
    as the upper trough and jet approach this evening. Southerly low and
    mid-level winds ahead of the shortwave will foster increased low and
    mid-level warm advection/frontogenesis through a cool and saturated
    profile with average DGZ depths around 1000m. Local radar
    observations suggests some banding is already occurring in the
    ongoing precipitation. Conditional Symmetric instability ahead of
    the wave and and enhancement from seasonably warm lake temperatures
    of 8-10C may support periodic heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5
    inches per hour this evening.=20

    The most likely corridor for heavy snow will be across the eastern
    Lake Shore and west-central lower Michigan between 23-03 UTC where
    maximum lake influence and forcing for ascent overlap. Farther east,
    lower boundary-layer moisture may result in delayed saturation,
    cutting into snow totals and rates as forcing for ascent begins to
    diminish late this evening and overnight.

    ..Lyons.. 11/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pQZwKj8o7HvuZpoysLYp5wRm5pkAaMGvMYYrdZqVizL1X51yuH-16xvDCrSHyhL5PlRz85Po$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42038575 42198626 42478634 42778634 43068640 43418658
    43628663 44028664 44308646 44398611 44328568 43938520
    43628506 43348501 43078499 42708495 42388500 42168526
    42058545 42038575=20

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