• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 28 23:03:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282303
    SPC MCD 282302=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1952
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western NY and far northwestern PA

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 282302Z - 290400Z

    SUMMARY...A narrow band of lake effect snow capable of producing
    heavy snowfall, with rates of 2+ inches per hour, will continue
    through the evening while gradually shifting southward.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KBUF shows a narrow band of
    heavy lake effect snowfall present over parts of southwestern NY
    downstream from Lake Erie. This band is well organized, and will
    likely persist through the evening while gradually shifting
    southward into parts of far northwestern PA. Cold mid-level
    temperatures associated with an upper trough/low over the Great
    Lakes and seasonably warm water temperatures on Lake Erie are
    supporting weak boundary-layer instability, with multiple lighting
    flashes noted within the band over the past hour or so. The presence
    of steep low/mid-level lapse rates, a saturated moisture profile,
    and strong lift associated with the upper trough will help to
    maintain this heavy snow band for the next several hours, with
    snowfall rates in the band of 2+ inches per hour likely. As the
    upper trough continues eastward this evening, low/mid-level winds
    will gradually veer to a more northwesterly component versus
    westerly, and the band should slowly shift southward accordingly
    before eventually weakening late this evening/early Monday morning.

    ..Gleason.. 11/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tWv_DjgXgwOiWaazZ32iLAlEn3tXHthH4vw9Lr7UVjRxCJbPhr5eQ7NYlVMjtW4qm5Gs8MAM$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42098028 42307958 42497890 42477787 42457715 42347710
    41967757 41657826 41637914 41667986 41868034 41998040

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