• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1950

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 26 21:43:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262143
    SPC MCD 262142=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1950
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western New England

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 262142Z - 270045Z

    SUMMARY...An uptick in heavy snow is possible over the next several
    hours across portions of New England as temperatures cool and local
    topography enhances precipitation development. Snow rates may
    occasionally surpass 1 inch per hour resulting in low visibility and
    fast accumulation.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional water vapor imagery showed a negatively-tilted upper low across southern Canada and upstate NY.
    across much of New England ahead of the upper low, synoptic ascent
    was supporting widespread precipitation in the form of rain and
    snow. While initially above freezing, surface temperatures ahead of
    the upper low have begun to drop in response to dynamic cooling from precipitation increasing in coverage and intensity, as well as
    increasing low-level cold advection from west/northwesterly
    low-level flow. NEXRAD and local observations from KNEX show a band
    of heavier snowfall, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, has
    developed near the NY, MA and VT borders. Likely enhanced by local
    topography and weak 850-700 mb frontogenesis, this snow band may
    produce occasional heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour as
    it slowly moves north and east through this evening.=20

    A change over to snow and the potential for periodic heavy snow will
    also develop farther north across portions of western VT and NH as
    surface temperatures continue to cool this evening. Model soundings
    show surface temperatures falling below freezing by 22-23z with
    steadily increasing DGZ depths. The favorable large-scale ascent and sufficiently moist/cool airmass should support the potential for 1
    inch per hour snow rates for a few hours before forcing weakens and
    shifts to the east later this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 11/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!odKCS8jHduuIh-BiWKAY-9iuK8J-kT3J61qdgHEqn5IG_WxphyHvq6rEKfb6KSiVCsXGlRSo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45087176 45137163 44747148 44567152 43987184 41857324
    41937358 42037380 42387391 43307387 44447344 44897284
    45047256 45087176=20

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