• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1948

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 21 19:03:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211903
    SPC MCD 211902=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1948
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

    Areas affected...Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211902Z - 212130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in number this
    afternoon and evening across Arkansas. Hail and gusty thunderstorm
    winds may be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. However, any
    severe potential should remain too isolated to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated intense thunderstorm is currently moving
    across Jackson County in northern Arkansas. This thunderstorm has a
    history of producing nickel-sized hail across Independence County.
    The expectation is that additional thunderstorms should develop
    across Arkansas this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of an
    approaching cold front.

    The overall thermodynamic environment appears marginal-at-best to
    support large hail and severe criteria surface winds. However,
    strong tropospheric shear and dynamic storm-scale processes may
    support hail, generally around 1 inch, and strong, gusty
    thunderstorm winds capable of damage with the strongest

    Given the highly isolated nature of the expected threat, a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 11/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uuEazfcTShCX8MLqnmobUDJY-UJvy1wUjcMF7XD1SiDqAm3PNEi8HIHhALL7UGJy3qSL7sN2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34429396 35019349 35959178 36019074 35769017 35169036
    34249102 33789133 33459194 33569290 33749379 33989412

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