• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1947

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 13 21:09:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132109
    SPC MCD 132109=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1947
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Massachusetts

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132109Z - 132315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may be maintained, and overspread
    much of eastern Massachusetts during the 5-7 PM EST time frame.=20
    This may be accompanied by a risk for localized, potentially
    damaging, wind gusts. It is not yet clear that another severe
    weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be
    monitored, and it is possible that Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549
    could be locally extended in area across parts of this region

    DISCUSSION...As the deepening surface low tracks across
    southern/southeastern New England into early evening,
    clockwise-curved low-level hodographs appear likely to continue to
    enlarge within its warm sector. However, latest Rapid Refresh
    forecast soundings indicate that southeasterly near surface flow off
    the Atlantic will maintain relatively low surface dew points in the
    lower/mid 40s F across much of eastern Massachusetts. They do
    indicate that a weak to modest elevated moisture return may
    contribute to sufficient CAPE to maintain the approaching line of thunderstorms, which continues to be supported by strong mid-level
    forcing for ascent. But it is not clear that there will be more
    than a risk for localized strong surface gusts, aided by areas of
    enhanced downward momentum transport.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 11/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_G-82KvAit1uJbBNVfYbdqNjda7RnrsREz3voHB7cxbXgIGRpuf8ZuQi1Pvt8V4q5JQpmdA$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42137151 42477119 42197067 41946987 41167041 41627143
    41547124 42137151=20

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