• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 12 17:25:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121725
    SPC MCD 121724=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1943
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Long Island...CT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121724Z - 121900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage cannot be ruled out
    over the next hour or so as a rotating convective cluster moves
    north over eastern Long Island and into CT.

    DISCUSSION...KOKX radar imagery has shown a long-lived rotating
    cluster of convection moving north from the shelf waters of the
    Atlantic to the south coast of eastern Long Island. The KOKX VAD
    wind profile shows intense flow fields with an enlarged hodograph.=20
    The main limiting factors are scant buoyancy and very weak lapse
    rates. Nonetheless, the storm-scale forcing associated with the
    hybrid rotating cluster of convection may enable the risk for
    damaging gusts to be realized on a localized basis, as the
    convection moves north from eastern Long Island into CT over the
    next 1-2 hours.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 11/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u5CgCzMzKTHjaT-hBQkRQFqw7bbFdQrXA4lMJvqXChlwpJRozHet-i7n-4MFTsePla1Ille5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40777285 41747245 41917216 41657199 40807252 40777285=20

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