• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1942

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 11 18:08:41 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 111808
    SPC MCD 111808=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1942
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

    Areas affected...central into southwest AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111808Z - 112015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized risk for damaging gusts may materialize over
    the next couple of hours. The coverage/intensity of gusts will
    preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line over
    west-central AL extending south-southwestward into east-central MS
    as of 12pm (18 UTC). The airmass ahead of the developing convective
    line continues to heat/destabilize with 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE
    estimated per modified 12z NAM forecast soundings. It is noted that
    the RAP/SPC mesoanalysis is under-forecasting CAPE due to a too-dry
    depiction of the boundary layer with surface dewpoints 3-5 degree F
    too cool compared to observations. Surface to 2-km lapse rates have
    steepened considerably (near 8-9 deg C/km). Given the wind profile
    supports storm organization, a couple of strong and possibly
    damaging gusts are plausible as the squall line moves eastward
    across central AL through mid afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 11/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oo5GF74k8Wdrhkud0Oefg8wLjDIqwK89kQA6R9OwbMO63ECzItreO6mLJ4V-yK7dDTfDfkiz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31768852 33598744 33698664 33448625 32098697 31598772

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1636654351-129950-2670--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)