• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1941

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 11 07:20:09 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 110720
    SPC MCD 110719=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1941
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0119 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

    Areas affected...South-central Arkansas...Northwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110719Z - 110945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat along with a potential for
    a brief tornado should persist for a couple hours from south-central
    Arkansas into northwest Louisiana. The threat is not expected to be
    great enough for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows a linear
    MCS currently moving across far northwest Arkansas extending
    southwestward into northeast Texas. The line of storms is located
    along the eastern edge of a corridor of maximized low-level
    moisture, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg
    range. In spite of the weak instability near the front, moderate
    deep-layer shear is present with 40 knots of 0-6km shear evident on
    the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP. This combined with about 35 knots of
    flow near 850 mb may be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat or
    potential for a brief tornado early this morning. The QLCS is
    expected to weaken as it shifts further east into Arkansas and

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 11/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t2-xqOQ4JRtYFftm4dR-CJmakTngz3igv0H-R9di5WW_4ZYRB6lNb8QnG_5zpc48Ib8j_E0X$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32859215 33849182 34529186 34829210 34899276 34679325
    34369335 33459357 32939382 31899407 31819270 32859215=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1636615214-129950-2505--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)