• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1938

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 10 23:30:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102330
    SPC MCD 102329=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1938
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas into northwest
    Missouri and far southwest Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

    Valid 102329Z - 110130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546

    SUMMARY...A limited severe threat continues across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 546, with damaging gusts the primary threat,
    though some small hail is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...An analysis of the latest METAR observations depict a
    surface low, located roughly along the northeast KS/southeast NE
    border, which continues to progress northeastward along with a
    trailing surface cold front across eastern KS. A marginally buoyant
    airmass is gradually advecting northward across central into
    northern MO, characterized by a surface airmass of near 70 F
    temperatures/upper 50s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates (per 23Z mesoanalysis).=20

    Latest KEAX radar data shows modest upscale growth of convection
    across eastern KS, which is progressing eastward towards the
    marginally buoyant airmass of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While 30-40 kts of
    effective bulk shear is present across central into northern MO, the approaching convection is not overly robust, and buoyancy is
    expected to remain mediocre through the evening. Predominantly
    linear modes of convection suggest that a couple of strong to
    damaging wind gusts and bouts of small hail remain possible this
    evening. An additional WW issuance is not expected into northern or
    western MO, though a local WW extension may be done.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pVoVHvW47N4ck3JutsdH1BPxyauGRufjRF88kLQ-P4Uf-xGrlSPSztCd-RRxBXP5rDa1m-M8$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38249643 39279590 39639539 39849495 40189432 40489369
    40629328 40489304 39699342 39169361 38739377 38539391
    38259426 38079540 38249643=20

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