• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1937

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 10 23:06:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102306
    SPC MCD 102306=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1937
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

    Areas affected...parts of north Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 102306Z - 110100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps
    a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK
    into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the
    55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE,
    despite little heating today.

    Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline
    intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more
    supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms
    forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening.

    Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500
    mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as
    storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief
    tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable
    prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are
    forecast to rapidly veer this evening.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rivEkDK9-8FQWRgc5PO3nZ3z7D7DXcEby9XqzEwQ-4p9bYYz9Rew6D2pWF7OeiHmWQe6eKcx$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544
    32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877
    33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674=20

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