• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1935

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 10 19:27:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101927
    SPC MCD 101926=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1935
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

    Areas affected...the central third of Oklahoma and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101926Z - 102130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...WW issuance is expected this afternoon -- possibly around
    21Z -- in anticipation of storm development near/ahead of an
    advancing surface front. All-hazards severe weather -- including
    potential for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes -- is

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows deepening cumulus
    development across northwestern Oklahoma near the western edge of a
    broad cloud shield, where insolation/boundary-layer destabilization
    is occurring. Farther east, breaks in the cloud shield are evident, contributing to an expanding zone of 1000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
    now indicated by objective analyses.=20=20

    The current flow field across this region is sufficient for updraft organization/rotation, with low-level southerly flow
    veering/increasing to southwesterly at 50 kt at mid levels, per the
    latest KTLX WSR-88D VWP. As such, initial storm development will
    likely become supercellular, with very large hail possible along
    with potential for locally strong wind gusts. Tornado threat would
    also exist locally, near any of these initial storms.

    With time, storm mode is expected to become more linear, as main
    convective initiation focuses along the advancing cold front. As
    such, greater wind risk along with a concurrent decrease in
    potential for very large hail is expected into the evening. Some
    tornado threat may linger, though shear does not appear overly
    favorable for substantial/numerous low-level QLCS circulations.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 11/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p9yp9YKFUZius0XzcaVpYvchDoGSiwrAqphFpc_UdKEWQJCKPDwmV4l0n6H8Mj5M56GyP6Fi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36429822 37239753 37249735 37209631 36489600 34639674
    34339713 34539846 35449858 36429822=20

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