• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1934

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 10 16:54:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101653
    SPC MCD 101653=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1934
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1053 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101653Z - 101900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
    early-mid afternoon across parts of eastern KS into southeast NE.=20
    It is uncertain whether a watch will be needed, but trends are being

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently formed in
    Sedgwick/Harvey counties KS. Other convection is beginning to form
    farther northeast near MHK. All of this activity is associated with
    increasing large-scale forcing ahead of a shortwave trough moving
    into western KS. Moderately strong south-southwesterly low-level
    winds in this area are enhancing warm advection, and are
    transporting a more moist air mass into the area. Forecast
    soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear, along with
    relatively cool mid-level temperatures, to pose a risk of hail in
    the stronger cells. Gusty/damaging winds or even brief spin-ups may
    also become a threat this afternoon if convection can sufficiently
    organize and take advantage of the backed near-surface winds. All
    of this is tempered by widespread cloud cover and variability among
    CAMs regarding the evolution of storms. Convective trends will be
    monitored for increasing organization and the possibility of a watch
    in the next few hours.

    ..Hart/Guyer.. 11/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tizTEh8nwyHlhzRIjXtYxvd8unlMAlS6P75_Ncsuptddpvq5zyZP7kQ_6Yzle8FrzccKVrtD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39439730 40029690 40589589 40419521 39619521 38779565
    38119628 37669714 37949743 39439730=20

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