• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1933

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Nov 9 19:02:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091902
    SPC MCD 091902=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1933
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 PM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

    Areas affected...Coastal western Washington

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091902Z - 092130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential exists for a thunderstorm-related strong
    wind gust and/or a waterspout or brief tornado this afternoon in and
    near coastal portions of Washington.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates some increase and
    deepening of low-topped convection through mid/late morning
    offshore, with a corresponding uptick in isolated lightning flashes.
    This is related to a steepening of lapse rates within the
    post-frontal environment as a potent shortwave trough/jet streak
    influences the region. Modest near-shore/coastal destabilization
    will continue to occur amid cloud breaks. Bands of convection will
    continue to move onshore through late morning, with additional and
    potentially stronger/more cellular low-topped thunderstorms evolving
    and spreading toward the coast/inland this afternoon. Supported by
    35-45 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL (per
    KRTX/KATX WSR-88D VWP data), a convectively enhanced wind gust
    and/or a waterspout or brief tornado could occur in coastal portions
    of Washington through the afternoon.

    ..Guyer.. 11/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oes4J7aZeoiiuL1PlTv88aHjmwsLwHMrOF9w8f56WFZfumWbR4lA_t7XulK1T_baU6IYd_0N$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 48282383 47832363 46892326 46622360 46492394 46702434
    48342502 48282383=20

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