Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
Areas affected...parts of central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 052256Z - 060200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually produce strong to locally
damaging wind gusts as they progress along the boundary this
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show a boundary near a
Sarasota to Titusville line, which is slowly progressing south and
east. The air mass north of the front is much cooler and stable, but
low 70s F dewpoints are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of the front, with the stronger values near the Gulf of Mexico.
Several stronger areas of convection were noted on radar from
Sarasota to Polk Counties as of 23Z, and an isolated severe storm
cannot be ruled out through evening given persistent lift of a moist
air mass beneath strong, front-parallel flow aloft.
Storm trends will continue to be monitored through evening.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1636153049-129950-881--