• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1932

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 5 22:57:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052257
    SPC MCD 052256=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1932
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

    Areas affected...parts of central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052256Z - 060200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually produce strong to locally
    damaging wind gusts as they progress along the boundary this

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show a boundary near a
    Sarasota to Titusville line, which is slowly progressing south and
    east. The air mass north of the front is much cooler and stable, but
    low 70s F dewpoints are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
    of the front, with the stronger values near the Gulf of Mexico.
    Several stronger areas of convection were noted on radar from
    Sarasota to Polk Counties as of 23Z, and an isolated severe storm
    cannot be ruled out through evening given persistent lift of a moist
    air mass beneath strong, front-parallel flow aloft.

    Storm trends will continue to be monitored through evening.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 11/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!paAE-TiZovsurxYX_z0nKGG7lMCBIcFJCtXj27d0aITQQxJ2M_fGUHB1pzedfteFC1zl2ary$=
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    LAT...LON 27298259 27468256 27698200 28068152 28448094 28808063
    28538049 28158057 27688030 27508032 26378211 26718232
    27038251 27298259=20

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