• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1931

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 5 14:09:55 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 051409
    SPC MCD 051409=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1931
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far southern Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051409Z - 051615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible over the
    next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected given the brief,
    spatially confined nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...While widespread precipitation/thunderstorms have
    hampered destabilization thus far across much of the FL peninsula,
    the 12Z MFL sounding and some of the latest METAR observations
    suggest that a warm front is gradually advancing northward into
    Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. Modifying the 12Z observed MFL
    sounding for the KHST or KTMB METAR surface temperatures/dewpoints
    (both in the mid 70s) suggests that over 2000/1000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE is
    present across extreme southern Florida. Both the observed sounding
    and AMX VWPs within the past hour show a modestly curved hodograph
    with nearly 200 m2/s2 effective SRH, indicative of some potential
    for storms to organize and perhaps demonstrate occasions of
    low-level rotation.

    At the moment, some convective cells are attempting to organize
    offshore Monroe County and are expected to move onshore within the
    hour. Given the aforementioned kinematics/thermodynamics in place.
    The more organized storms will have the potential to support a
    threat for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado. However,
    since the severe threat is expected to be marginal and constrained
    primarily to Monroe/Miami-Dade Counties (perhaps southern
    Collier/Broward Counties) in the near-term, a WW issuance is not

    ..Squitieri/Goss.. 11/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ruujp5jIMFH7EcVEVl2HJ17VnslaAWTw5OhEv9v88Bk0SIHwX7uE9d-wwbWTDKl9S4g-PGNf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 25868213 26128161 26228070 26138011 25818000 25488013
    25188027 24998050 24908083 24918125 25048184 25868213=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1636121400-129950-661--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)