• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1930

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 5 08:30:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050830
    SPC MCD 050829=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

    Areas affected...South Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050829Z - 051100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and hail threat is expected to develop
    across parts of south Florida early this morning. The threat should
    be too isolated for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Key West shows scattered thunderstorms across the the southern Florida Peninsula with several
    discrete cells located in the Florida Keys. A rotating storm was
    located just to the northeast of Key West. The cells in the Florida
    Keys will continue to move north-northeastward over the next few
    hours. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE across the Florida Keys in the
    1000 to 1200 J/kg range with slightly weaker instability across the
    southern Florida Peninsula. The WSR-88D VWP at Miami has 0-6 km
    shear near 45 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicity has risen to
    near 180 m2/s2 over the last hour. This wind profile will support
    weak supercell structures along with a marginal tornado threat.The
    strongest of cores should be capable of producing hail. The marginal
    tornado and hail threat is expected to continue through daybreak as
    the more discrete storms move across the eastern Florida Keys and
    into areas to the southwest of Miami.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 11/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tUqNhyOkmg0vXIxdjUIMucZL3inkQnLCKTWco5ozV0i4NwU54TWZNDSKj6bhqBGgHN5jFLvf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 24748091 24968033 25448008 25818013 25928040 25908091
    25928149 25818172 25608188 25168195 24798172 24748091=20

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