• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1928

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 29 19:36:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291936
    SPC MCD 291936=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1928
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia...southern/central
    Maryland...and Delaware

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291936Z - 292200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are
    possible, though a Watch is unlikely this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Broken bands of convection will continue to spread
    northward within a broad area of warm air advection located south of
    a lifting warm front across portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic
    states. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints located south of the warm front
    combined with pockets of diurnal heating are contributing to
    generally weak instability amid a favorable vertically veering wind
    profile (bulk wind differences of 45 to 55 kts) sampled by the DOX
    VAD wind profile. While this environment would generally support the maintenance and perhaps strengthening of ongoing convection
    (especially along immediate coastal areas), poor mid-level lapse
    rates along with current inflow layers rooted just above the surface
    are limiting the overall intensity of convection and related hazards
    thus far. Any convection that can become surface-based could pose a
    localized damaging wind gust risk, and a brief tornado cannot be
    entirely ruled out owing to favorable effective SRH values of 100 to
    200 m2/s2 across the warm sector. Regardless, the overall severe
    threat appears too marginal to support Watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Gleason/Hart.. 10/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sfmYL3pM2LiAbfZFEiDZXyqdywRjBweLXICSEpuxBf2-uet7bFsDMiMZVgPw1TpfOGMc6x60$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36657597 36587639 36677674 37407679 37937675 38657690
    39127670 39107625 38977561 38657493 38247496 37217570

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