• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1927

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 29 15:45:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291544
    SPC MCD 291544=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1927
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

    Areas affected...extreme northeast North Carolina into southeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291544Z - 291645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Low-topped convection will pose a modest threat for a
    couple of locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado. At this
    time the overall magnitude and spacial extent of any severe threat
    does not appear to warrant a WW.

    DISCUSSION...An arcing band of low-topped convection extends from
    southeast VA into far northeast NC. Activity is developing along a
    pre-frontal convergence band extending inland from the Gulf Stream.
    A narrow corridor of weak instability is indicated with 500-1000
    J/kg MLCAPE along and south of a warm front that extends across
    southeast VA. A relatively small window will exist for this
    convection to become better organized and capable of producing a
    couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
    where sizeable low-level hodographs exists across coastal NC and
    southeast VA. The inland advance of the warm sector will remain
    limited, keeping the spatial extent of the threat relatively small.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 10/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r7Y9LV6KBVJ-1NzNgE14vDhkpogGB501O_O34yde0y4GZ3RvrdEwwzySs6y4oIYeXf4kxPQz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37777595 36187514 35757570 36687623 37727711 37777595=20

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