Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Areas affected...extreme northeast North Carolina into southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 291544Z - 291645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Low-topped convection will pose a modest threat for a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado. At this
time the overall magnitude and spacial extent of any severe threat
does not appear to warrant a WW.
DISCUSSION...An arcing band of low-topped convection extends from
southeast VA into far northeast NC. Activity is developing along a
pre-frontal convergence band extending inland from the Gulf Stream.
A narrow corridor of weak instability is indicated with 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE along and south of a warm front that extends across
southeast VA. A relatively small window will exist for this
convection to become better organized and capable of producing a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
where sizeable low-level hodographs exists across coastal NC and
southeast VA. The inland advance of the warm sector will remain
limited, keeping the spatial extent of the threat relatively small.
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