• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1926

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 29 00:49:26 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 290049
    SPC MCD 290049=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1926
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

    Areas affected...South Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290049Z - 290215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal damaging wind threat will continue for a few
    more hours.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has moved on shore near Naples. The
    00Z MFL RAOB shows around 1300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of these storms
    with effective shear around 35 knots. This should be sufficient for
    maintenance of ongoing activity. However, weak lapse rates and high
    freezing levels will limit the hail threat and mostly unidirectional
    low-level shear should keep the tornado threat mostly subdued. An
    occasional damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially where precipitation loading can strengthen downdrafts. However, even this
    threat is quite marginal given the relatively warm temperatures in
    the lowest 4-5km which will likely quell stronger updraft
    development and likely keep downdraft wind speeds below severe

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 10/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLvQZVCEknO6FuCnXQTImMdUTXaiWqAht3jKvlvvykpm_yNAg11J2XM_3wj3qWyBiYp_giqQ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 26238189 26728100 26968003 26248000 25398021 25198038
    25198072 25148102 25338128 25748171 26238189=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1635468572-2133-3704--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)