• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 28 22:36:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282236
    SPC MCD 282236=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0536 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

    Areas affected...southern and eastern South Carolina into southern
    coastal North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282236Z - 290130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated cells may affect eastern South Carolina over the
    next few hours, and eventually into eastern North Carolina later
    this evening. A conditional threat of a tornado will exist.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a warm front extending from
    eastern GA into southern SC, with low 70s F dewpoints south of the
    boundary. Although temperatures aloft are warm, this magnitude of
    moisture will lead to sufficient CAPE to support convection.
    Low-level shear is quite favorable for rotation assuming a storm
    moves into this environment, with 0-1 km values near 300 m2/s2
    immediately near the warm front.

    Ongoing convection currently over southern SC will need to be
    monitored as it potentially translates up the coastal counties this
    evening. Additional cells are possible as well due to lift from warm
    advection. A brief tornado is conditionally possible, but expected
    coverage of severe may not warrant a watch.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qL649oxrqTbtaRd4jzBTrb4FwV3WvQ6BVDPUIrrAGhwMtklD39bRfi_Pu-kEz9IjbRsvY5Dk$=
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    LAT...LON 32558000 32328037 32138055 32148074 32408089 32848085
    33777969 34157920 34217877 34157841 34057831 33877831
    33797862 33527896 33147913 32558000=20

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