Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Areas affected...southern and eastern South Carolina into southern
coastal North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 282236Z - 290130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated cells may affect eastern South Carolina over the
next few hours, and eventually into eastern North Carolina later
this evening. A conditional threat of a tornado will exist.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a warm front extending from
eastern GA into southern SC, with low 70s F dewpoints south of the
boundary. Although temperatures aloft are warm, this magnitude of
moisture will lead to sufficient CAPE to support convection.
Low-level shear is quite favorable for rotation assuming a storm
moves into this environment, with 0-1 km values near 300 m2/s2
immediately near the warm front.
Ongoing convection currently over southern SC will need to be
monitored as it potentially translates up the coastal counties this
evening. Additional cells are possible as well due to lift from warm
advection. A brief tornado is conditionally possible, but expected
coverage of severe may not warrant a watch.
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