Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Areas affected...northern through central Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...
Valid 281551Z - 281745Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes will persist into the afternoon across northern through
DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms extends from near
Jacksonville Fl southwest to northwest of the Tampa Bay area. The
boundary layer is undergoing destabilization south of a warm front
that extends from northern FL southeast to off the eastern FL coast
with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Potential still exists for a few
discrete storms/supercells to develop ahead of the line, but primary
severe threat will probably occur as the line moves east through the
Peninsula. VWP data show 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 150-200
m2/s2, but some veering of the low-level winds may occur with time,
suggesting hodograph size will remain modest. Nevertheless,
effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized
structures embedded within the line, maintaining a threat for
isolated damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes into the afternoon.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at firstname.lastname@example.org and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1635436322-2133-3435--