• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 28 15:51:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281551
    SPC MCD 281551=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

    Areas affected...northern through central Florida

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

    Valid 281551Z - 281745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of
    tornadoes will persist into the afternoon across northern through
    central Florida.

    DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms extends from near
    Jacksonville Fl southwest to northwest of the Tampa Bay area. The
    boundary layer is undergoing destabilization south of a warm front
    that extends from northern FL southeast to off the eastern FL coast
    with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Potential still exists for a few
    discrete storms/supercells to develop ahead of the line, but primary
    severe threat will probably occur as the line moves east through the
    Peninsula. VWP data show 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 150-200
    m2/s2, but some veering of the low-level winds may occur with time,
    suggesting hodograph size will remain modest. Nevertheless,
    effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized
    structures embedded within the line, maintaining a threat for
    isolated damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes into the afternoon.

    ..Dial.. 10/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vRTlyMz9_kBRIWu-O9x7nHI3_N31FNpTscFwdi5qa1oBPG9nPJ2F9nWun7oflbuWZpWvNUUG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 27648274 29098236 29878207 29928144 29118101 28508116
    26628123 26778230 27648274=20

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