• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 28 12:13:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281212
    SPC MCD 281212=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281212Z - 281415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may pose increasing
    potential to produce tornadoes inland of coastal areas, across much
    of northern and central Florida, perhaps as far west as Tallahassee,
    by 10 AM to Noon EDT. Trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...To the southeast of a broad, deep occluded lower/mid
    tropospheric cyclone centered over the Ozark Plateau vicinity, the
    surface cold front is advancing eastward through the Florida
    Panhandle. The front is preceded by the weak northern flank of a
    more extensive squall line (now extending across the northeast into
    south central Gulf of Mexico), which is advancing through Big Bend
    vicinity. As the front and convective boundary continue eastward,
    beneath difluent and increasingly cyclonic mid/upper flow, latest
    model output suggests that the moist warm sector will begin
    advancing inland of Gulf coast areas through much of northern into
    central Florida by 14-16Z.

    It appears that boundary-layer dew points will increase through the
    lower 70s and possibly contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
    1000 J/kg, despite the continuing presence of weak lapse rates
    associated with warm layer aloft. Boundary-layer warming may also
    be inhibited by considerable cloud cover, but clockwise-curved
    low-level hodographs are forecast to enlarge beneath southerly 850
    mb flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt.

    This environment may become increasingly conducive to the inland
    development of discrete thunderstorm development, as well as
    intensification of thunderstorms along the pre-frontal convective
    line, including evolving supercell structures which may pose a risk
    for tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qGgiqs56l5i_Zn5dYLSZpucfmc-4yJDGCfNLH0qYK6hZgvVxYOQMR9CZ2ChMRw6RCSVRC8NK$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29898412 30418390 30108214 29458137 28368273 28888284
    29658379 29898412=20

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