Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
Areas affected...parts of the coastal Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 280322Z - 280545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may eventually impact coastal
counties of the Florida Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...An expanding batch of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward across southern AL and into the western FL Panhandle, with
the bulk of the activity offshore. A warm front currently extends
from the Mobile/Pensacola area east/southeastward over the Gulf of
Mexico, with only low to mid 60s F dewpoints toward Panama City FL
as of 03Z.
Warm advection aided by 30-40 kt southwesterly flow at 850 mb will
result in a gradual increase in instability across the coastal
counties of the FL Panhandle, coincident with the arrival of 70s F
dewpoints. Shear will favor supercells, and perhaps a brief tornado,
but the overall threat will depend on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization over land. As such, an additional watch could be
needed later tonight east of WW 543.
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