• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1919

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 28 02:09:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 280209
    SPC MCD 280208=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1919
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0908 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Alabama Panhandle into the western
    Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 543...

    Valid 280208Z - 280345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 543 continues.

    SUMMARY...A brief uptick in tornado potential may be realized in the
    next 1-2 hours with semi-discrete supercells ahead of a squall line
    within a narrow warm sector.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple semi-discrete supercells have recently
    developed on the nose of an instability axis, ahead of a loosely
    organized MCS/squall line, where occasional bouts of low-level
    rotation and a TDS has recently been observed (Jackson County, MS).
    These storms are moving ashore amid mid to upper 60sF dewpoints,
    yielding 500+ J/kg MLCAPE based on 00Z mesoanalysis. 0154Z MOB VWP
    depicts a classic, curved hodograph with over 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH,
    which should be sufficient given the aforementioned instability to
    support an additional brief tornado or two over the next couple of
    hours. However, dewpoints drop into the lower 60sF with eastward
    extent into the Fl Panhandle, with instability also decreasing and
    inhibition increasing. While onshore low-level flow will support
    some increase in instability later this evening, the overall
    decrease in buoyancy lends less certainty to longer term tornado
    potential, especially inland.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!togBgIULEsAJdVFzpVUoA2UNmXXyTezBvDuy9BTj027xq8EEpMWyl7n2YafppXyD_oBCpVXL$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30288876 30848864 31308830 31428779 31288711 31068646
    30678634 30358647 30198708 30108816 30288876=20

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