• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1915

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 17:51:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271751
    SPC MCD 271750=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1915
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...southern Louisiana through southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 540...

    Valid 271750Z - 271915Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 540 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and tornadoes including potential
    for a couple of strong tornadoes should persist over southern LA,
    spreading east through southeast LA and southern MS during the
    afternoon. A new tornado watch will likely be needed for this area
    by 19Z.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded bowing segments and some
    supercell structures continues moving through western LA at around
    35 kt. East of this line the warm sector continues to expand
    northward south of a warm front that extends from southeast through
    north central LA. A very moist boundary layer is in place south of
    this front with mid 70s F dewpoints, and diabatic warming has
    boosted surface temperatures into the low to mid 80s F supporting up
    to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Several northwest-southeast oriented
    convergence bands are evident on visible imagery extending into
    southern LA from the Gulf. The 18Z RAOB from Slidell modified for
    surface conditions in warm sector indicates minimal inhibition. This
    suggests that, in addition to the arrival of the line of storms, the
    potential will exist for discrete storms develop as the boundary
    layer continues to destabilize. The low-level jet is forecast to
    undergo further strengthening, supporting large hodographs with 0-1
    km storm relative helicity from 250-350 m2/s2. Threat for damaging
    wind and tornadoes will persist through the remainder of the
    afternoon into early evening in this region.

    ..Dial/Thompson.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rm_zkh_nbz6yeWyb1f2RwqtPjCX4bmcbzziKrzMd-VrrKyH_e6czcQ6cS0Qj2dw_iBkAdbpO$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29709288 30359283 31129279 31429201 31599145 31848993
    31568868 30548864 29309009 29399090 29709174 29709288=20

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