• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1913

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 14:44:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271444
    SPC MCD 271444=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1913
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...far northeast TX into northern LA and southern AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271444Z - 271645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will be
    possible through the afternoon across far northeast Texas into
    northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing in coverage and
    intensity along a developing QLCS ahead of a surface cold front
    across eastern TX. A narrow warm sector ahead of this activity will
    propagate eastward through the day. Instability is forecast to
    remain weak, generally around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE or less. However,
    effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt will be maintained, with
    low level hodographs favorably curved for rotating cells within the
    line of convection. Weaker instability and an overall less favorable
    warm sector compared to further south will generally limit overall
    severe potential, but a couple of locally damaging gusts or a brief
    tornado will be possible with any stronger/better organized
    convection that may develop. Convective trends are being monitored
    and a watch may be needed within the next couple of hours.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r8_hqKKcrtCl-wzO8YhxiBT2EUJVErxVXXYOhJvQ39OcwZbKi0qweVLlHC8-mzoJoW_3T7_k$=
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    LAT...LON 32799476 33219471 33439461 33619417 33709348 33559275
    33309230 33069210 32699193 32369191 32129198 31919222
    31859252 31859299 31719393 31749438 32019455 32489472

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