• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1912

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 14:08:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271408
    SPC MCD 271408=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1912
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0908 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 540...

    Valid 271408Z - 271545Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 540 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for tornadoes through 16Z will persist
    with discrete storms developing from southeast TX and possibly far
    southwest LA.

    DISCUSSION...Early this morning a warm front extends through
    southwest LA north of Lake Charles into southeast TX near Jasper,
    then farther northwest where it intersects the squall line which
    extends southward through the Houston metro area and beyond. The
    warm sector to the south and east of these boundaries is very moist
    with low to mid 70s F dewpoints along with temperatures in the upper
    70s F. The 12Z RAOBs and latest objective analysis show the
    atmosphere in this area to be moderately unstable with around 1500
    J/kg MLCAPE. VWP data from Lake Charles also indicates sizeable
    low-level hodographs with 250-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity
    based on current storm motions. This strongly sheared, low-LCL
    environment will remain favorable for low-level mesocyclones and
    tornadoes next couple hours as discrete supercells continue moving
    northeast through the warm sector. Some interaction with the warm
    front is also likely, potentially augmenting the tornado threat.

    Farther west, damaging wind will remain the primary threat along the
    squall line, but a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out
    with any embedded mesovortices.

    ..Dial.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!unaD6c2twU6sYVtLYqeOF1KuWyYSJoOO92Lgm0tpPF32Wqe-e1TYr4xGQPZpYHLT_w_sdLLC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31029405 30739340 30189340 29759405 29889481 30609464
    30929444 31029405=20

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