• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1911

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 12:36:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271236
    SPC MCD 271236=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1911
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the upper Texas and Louisiana coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271236Z - 271400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing and likely to
    continue across the region into mid morning. It appears that this
    will include the evolution of a few supercell structures which may
    begin to pose a risk for tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity on the leading edge of the
    southeastward advancing, convectively generated surface cold pool
    has yet to show signs of appreciable intensification, and the window
    of opportunity for this to occur appears to be narrowing, with it on
    track to reach mid/upper Texas coastal areas by or shortly after
    15Z. However, this activity is now preceded by scattered discrete
    thunderstorm development, likely rooted within the seasonably moist
    and moderately unstable boundary layer, near upper Texas and
    southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. These storms probably have
    been supported by forcing associated with weak low-level warm
    advection, with at least one cell with a sustained low-level
    mesocyclone offshore east of Galveston.=20=20

    The isolated supercell may advance inland across coastal areas
    southwest of Beaumont/Port Arthur during the next hour or two, and
    similar additional development near coastal areas appears at least
    possible through 14-15Z. Although cloud cover may slow
    boundary-layer destabilization inland across southwestern into south
    central Louisiana coastal areas, strengthening of southerly 850 mb
    flow (in excess of 30 kt) is ongoing, and will contribute to
    enlarging clockwise curved low-level hodographs.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!reSHaXj_PyOY6204ED1qhZdvVldRX4RuXwY94eWKZITYqqNWXXRGyaRZ1DnJHV4dQqMWpGdL$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30799463 30949382 30489287 30149168 29779078 29089063
    28969144 29269316 29269464 29839501 30189475 30799463=20

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