• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1910

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 10:13:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271013
    SPC MCD 271013=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1910
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of south central into southeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

    Valid 271013Z - 271215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539

    SUMMARY...An area of stronger thunderstorm activity could still
    gradually intensify and organize across and east-northeast of the
    San Antonio area into the mid/upper Texas coastal plain through
    daybreak, accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts.=20
    While it is not yet certain that a new severe weather watch will be
    needed, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent and low-level low moistening appear
    to be contributing to weakening mid-level inhibition ahead of
    convective outflow advancing eastward and southeastward into the
    Interstate-35 corridor of south central Texas. Seasonably moist
    surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s may be contributing to
    mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, and perhaps as high as 3000
    J/kg around the San Antonio area.=20=20

    While thunderstorm intensities along much of the convective outflow
    boundary have remained fairly modest, a persistent area of stronger
    convective development the past couple of hours has been focused
    near the intersection of the outflow boundary and the leading edge
    of cooling around the 700 mb level. This mid-level cooling has
    recently surged east of the Del Rio vicinity, with the clustering of
    stronger storms now near/northwest through north of San Antonio.=20=20

    With this cooling forecast to continue to spread east-northeastward
    toward the middle and upper Texas coastal plain through 12-14Z,
    there appears potential for convection to begin to intensify more
    rapidly with substantive further upscale growth. If this occurs,
    deep-layer shear beneath 30-50 kt southwesterly flow in the 500-300
    mb layer appears sufficient to contribute to increasing organization
    and the potential to produce strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rvH7bIKjwsHHZE9MuNpOYHkmWzNJwA9l0ayblAAIZ3WofOSH3LQOJjrIwEylAuJu55cEDFV4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29379878 29809847 30059782 30629745 31139709 31319630
    31089546 30409531 29279614 28759705 28689880 29379878=20

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