Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central into eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...
Valid 270613Z - 270815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
SUMMARY...Localized severe wind gusts with the potential for an
isolated tornado may continue another or or so, before tending to
diminish as the squall line advances east of the watch by 08-09Z.
DISCUSSION...A northeastward surging segment of the squall line has
crossed the Interstate 35 corridor of central Oklahoma with mostly
sub-severe wind gusts recorded in ASOS and mesonet observations, but
with a number of embedded cyclonic circulations evident along the
leading edge of the surface cold pool. Low-level vertical shear is
strong eastward through much of the remainder of Oklahoma, beneath a
50 kt southerly 850 mb jet. However, the squall line is in the
process of progressing across and east of a surface warm front, with
a substantive near surface stable layer persisting to the northeast
of the front. With continued eastward progression, even potential
for localized severe wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado, seems
likely to diminish within the next few hours.
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