• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1907

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 03:10:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270310
    SPC MCD 270309=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1907
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1009 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Kansas into central and
    eastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 270309Z - 270415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of
    southeastern Kansas into central and eastern Oklahoma as severe wind
    producing line segments approach from the west. A WW will be issued
    shortly to address the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple line segments have organized over the past
    couple of hours and are approaching the I-35 corridor. These line
    segments are progressing within a modestly unstable (1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE) but highly sheared airmass. Latest ICT and OKC VWPS depict
    60+ kt flow below 1-km AGL, which can efficiently be transported to
    the surface in any vigorous cell/line segment. As such, damaging
    gusts are anticipated to continue overnight despite the presence of
    increasing convective inhibition. In addition, given modest
    surface-1 km veering contributing to 400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, embedded circulations and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes are also possible.
    A WW will be issued shortly to account for this scenario.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oVNMDR3FFnwgoBUOQgQj2PPWgMdEyOmY_kTh7MTnUITTfFZ8X8C2gyMA16-SfyXldg7iP_4A$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33819736 36409792 37819777 38419758 38599717 38499654
    37969575 37319534 36319523 35179534 34429549 33939582
    33699619 33819736=20

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