Mesoscale Discussion 1907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021
Areas affected...portions of southeast Kansas into central and
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 270309Z - 270415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of
southeastern Kansas into central and eastern Oklahoma as severe wind
producing line segments approach from the west. A WW will be issued
shortly to address the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Multiple line segments have organized over the past
couple of hours and are approaching the I-35 corridor. These line
segments are progressing within a modestly unstable (1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) but highly sheared airmass. Latest ICT and OKC VWPS depict
60+ kt flow below 1-km AGL, which can efficiently be transported to
the surface in any vigorous cell/line segment. As such, damaging
gusts are anticipated to continue overnight despite the presence of
increasing convective inhibition. In addition, given modest
surface-1 km veering contributing to 400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, embedded circulations and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes are also possible.
A WW will be issued shortly to account for this scenario.
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