Mesoscale Discussion 1905
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021
Areas affected...portions of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...
Valid 270159Z - 270330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0536.
Damaging gusts are the primary severe threats, but large hail and a
tornado or two could also occur with the more dominant, persistent
DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments with embedded multicellular
clusters have become established ahead of a merging cold
front/dryline over the past couple of hours across western portions
of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. A couple instances of large hail
and wind gusts have occurred with the stronger storms. However,
while convective coverage continues to slowly increase, individual
storms have struggled to vigorously organize. Latest RAP forecast
soundings depict persistent convective inhibition in the 850-700 mb
layer, with recent DDC and VNX VWPs showing a relative weakness in
the 2-3 km AGL flow, which is likely inhibiting storms from
acquiring strong mid/low-level rotation.=20
Nonetheless, robust kinematics remain in place. The 0124Z DDC VWP
depicts over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH within the surface-1 km layer
alone. Despite the 2-3 km weakness in the shear profile, adequate
directional and ample speed shear exists in the low-levels. When
considering widespread 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the threat for damaging
gusts, occasional large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two remains
with any storm that manages to become organized and sustained.
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