• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 27 02:00:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270200
    SPC MCD 270159=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1905
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0859 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

    Valid 270159Z - 270330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0536.
    Damaging gusts are the primary severe threats, but large hail and a
    tornado or two could also occur with the more dominant, persistent

    DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments with embedded multicellular
    clusters have become established ahead of a merging cold
    front/dryline over the past couple of hours across western portions
    of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. A couple instances of large hail
    and wind gusts have occurred with the stronger storms. However,
    while convective coverage continues to slowly increase, individual
    storms have struggled to vigorously organize. Latest RAP forecast
    soundings depict persistent convective inhibition in the 850-700 mb
    layer, with recent DDC and VNX VWPs showing a relative weakness in
    the 2-3 km AGL flow, which is likely inhibiting storms from
    acquiring strong mid/low-level rotation.=20

    Nonetheless, robust kinematics remain in place. The 0124Z DDC VWP
    depicts over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH within the surface-1 km layer
    alone. Despite the 2-3 km weakness in the shear profile, adequate
    directional and ample speed shear exists in the low-levels. When
    considering widespread 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the threat for damaging
    gusts, occasional large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two remains
    with any storm that manages to become organized and sustained.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o0T2LpfdGyiJmJnu_CTQ-xN8fPWis2NBXNg_tPd1GAT58PvnzAX_5t7UxOhcg-krg_JIRXIv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35619971 38680019 40040021 40029924 39999861 39689813
    38339806 36399787 35689784 35519889 35619971=20

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