• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1904

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 26 22:40:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262240
    SPC MCD 262240=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1904
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

    Areas affected...Southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 262240Z - 262345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted by
    27/00z across the southern High Plains. Large hail and damaging
    winds are expected, along with a tornado or two possible.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
    spreading rapidly east across the High Plains of eastern NM into
    west TX, per latest water-vapor imagery. Over the last hour or so,
    cu field along the dryline has thickened/deepened, especially from
    Hemphill to Childress County in the eastern TX Panhandle. Other more
    isolated moistening thermals are noted as far southwest as Big
    Spring TX. The agitated cu field should continue to mature and
    thunderstorms will likely evolve over the next few hours.
    Strengthening wind fields will easily encourage organized
    convection. Initial activity may be supercellular in nature with
    upscale growth expected to result in an organized severe squall line
    later this evening. Large hail can be expected with supercells
    eventually leading to more damaging winds as the linear MCS
    propagates toward the I-35 corridor, most likely near/after midnight
    across OK, and late tonight across north-central TX.

    ..Darrow/Hart.. 10/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_chEq0RKbR7uOlLdMi1cNoZWsvd3B1zD3YX-junOWO8GWla8hmuz6O86xP3LWNhrwJks79r$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32330136 33410069 35210049 35139886 33109898 32030033

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