• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1901

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 22:42:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252242
    SPC MCD 252241=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1901
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern Maryland and northern Delaware
    into southeast Pennsylvania and southern into central New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252241Z - 260045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts remain possible with some of the
    stronger storms over the next couple of hours. The severe threat
    should gradually diminish later this evening with boundary-layer
    stabilization. A WW issuance is not expected given the short-lived
    nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...A west-east oriented band of convection has become
    established along a confluence zone across central MD/DE over the
    past couple of hours. While mainly pulse cellular and brief
    multicellular storms comprise the convective band, a couple of the
    stronger storm cores have produced damaging gusts within the past
    hour, particularly across Fairfax County, VA. This convective band
    is progressing northward across a reservoir of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE and
    35-45 kts of effective bulk shear (driven primarily by sfc-500 mb
    speed shear within a unidirectional southerly vertical wind
    profile). As such, a couple damaging gusts remain possible with the
    longer lasting cells/clusters given the available buoyancy. However,
    RAP forecast soundings suggest that the aforementioned buoyancy is
    driven primarily by a heated/mixed boundary layer. Given nocturnal
    cooling already underway, the boundary layer is expected to
    stabilize. As such, the ongoing damaging gust threat is expected to
    be relatively brief (i.e. continuing for only a few more hours
    before diminishing), and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v-FADmHNovjaDjn3vhXHUlXaBR-jwkRhsJSLvLPJhdy1JuH-3JdphR4XRZHm8DTnyEVdQAtY$=
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    LAT...LON 38907522 38987631 38977694 38987731 38987769 39157771
    39597747 40357648 40827598 40867569 40737524 40557475
    40337443 39877411 39447421 39097460 38887491 38907522=20

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