• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1900

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 21:46:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252146
    SPC MCD 252146=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1900
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Ohio...western West
    Virginia...far southwest Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 252146Z - 252345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat
    with the more intense storms embedded within a squall line. The
    brief and localized nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW
    issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A strongly forced convective line of low-topped
    thunderstorms has recently developed over the past couple of hours
    in southern OH/extreme northeast KY immediately ahead of a decaying
    surface low/lee-trough axis. These storms are progressing into a
    very marginally buoyant environment (MLCAPE slightly above 100
    J/kg), driven primarily by a modestly heated surface airmass (mid
    60s F temperatures and low to mid 50s F dewpoints). The 2118Z RLX
    VWP depicts nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, mainly due to veering within
    the surface-1 km AGL layer. As such, the low-topped line of storms
    is expected to remain somewhat organized as it crosses the warm
    sector, with a couple damaging gusts the main concern and a brief
    instance of transient rotation possible. The line is expected to
    weaken shortly after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes and the
    line approaches western PA, where persistent cloud cover has
    promoted a relatively more stable surface airmass.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!riGP5BmaaJcMUJClTNCwZrX8TfEtEUzGmmiDQzLEW8dfbVaws5AYs3b5GNrUL_M1n5uZpv0N$=
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    LAT...LON 38258314 39978261 40638162 40848104 40728052 40598039
    40068035 39368048 38808057 38418071 38208108 37968148
    37878192 37938256 38258314=20

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