• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1899

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 19:02:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251902
    SPC MCD 251901=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1899
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0201 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

    Areas affected...parts of central and western North Carolina into
    south-central Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251901Z - 252100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe risk -- largely in the form of locally strong wind
    gusts -- will gradually increase this afternoon and into early
    evening. A WW may be required.

    DISCUSSION...A band of pre-frontal large-scale ascent -- associated
    with a mid-/upper-level vort max crossing western Ohio -- continues
    to spread across the Appalachians at this time. Ahead of this band
    of cloud cover/precipitation, weak heating/destabilization is
    ongoing across an area centered from south-central Virginia into
    central North Carolina. Here, temperatures warming into the 70s and
    dewpoints increasing into the 60s have resulted in 500 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE development per recent objective analysis. As
    large-scale ascent gradually overspreads this slightly more unstable environment, an increase in coverage/intensity of what thus far has
    been weak convection east of the mountains, is expected.

    As stronger/southwesterly flow aloft likewise spreads atop the area
    of greatest instability, shear will become supportive of organized
    storms. While a few rotating cells may evolve initially, which
    would include a non-zero tornado risk, upscale growth into
    lines/bands is expected -- particularly this evening as the cold
    front moves/redevelops east of the mountains. As such, the more
    substantial overall risk is likely to be wind.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!of0JmvVG2n-WL_AlbeBzwGyjJui1Izt6ERJZO_qxqftit1tq26ijwv8M0CGoyjhDijpwxPTb$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35597969 35538083 35958135 36747983 37927859 38047771
    37417688 36237739 35847816 35597969=20

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