• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1898

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 04:59:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250459
    SPC MCD 250458=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Southern WA Coast...Far Northern OR Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250458Z - 250700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two may occur within the immediate
    coastal regions of central/southern WA and northern OR. A strong
    convectively added wind gust or two is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown several deeper cores
    within the more cellular activity off the coast. Moderate low-level
    rotation has been noted within a few of these cells. Buoyancy is
    expected to remain very limited, but strong forcing for ascent will
    persist and shear will remain very strong. Recent LGX VAD profiles
    sampled over 50 kt of 0-1 km vertical shear and over 400 m2/s2 of
    0-1 km storm-relative helicity. The conditions will continue to
    support transient, low-topped convective cells with occasional
    rotation. Isolated convectively augmented wind gusts and/or brief
    tornado may occur in the immediate coastal regions of
    central/southern WA and northern OR.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tL_-K0MUCDw_BsN-dZ3JoC359xq5AdMXxRfvhdc9LkwwqUgfoONSmAXD9QuqrnidA1ArxfiM$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46722417 47402437 47472390 46792375 45742361 45592402

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