Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...southeast Missouri...central and southern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...
Valid 250333Z - 250600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two
persists across the watch area, and generally will decrease with
time and eastward extent.
DISCUSSION...Storms have largely transitioned to a more linear storm
mode as opposed to isolated supercells, most notably over southeast
MO where an earlier cluster outbreak of tornadoes occurred. Various
storms appear to contain damaging wind potential, with a few severe
gusts measured recently. Shear remains strong across the area ahead
of the cold front which now extends from western IL into southeast
Surface observations show relatively drier trajectories across TN
and KY, with 50s dewpoints into IN and parts of southeastern IL. As
such, the greatest severe threat in the short term will remain from
central IL into southeast MO where dewpoints remain in the 60s F
with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Transient supercells remain possible,
either in isolated or embedded within the lines.
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