• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1896

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 02:34:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250233
    SPC MCD 250233=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1896
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...Northern/West-Central AR...Southeast OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 532...

    Valid 250233Z - 250400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two is
    expected to continue for the next few hours. An additional watch
    will likely be needed over portions of the region before Tornado
    Watch 532 expires at 04Z.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to progress
    eastward from north-central AR southwestward into southeast OK. A
    few storms did show some organization earlier, but now much of the
    activity has transitioned back to a somewhat disorganized mode along
    the front. The only exception is the cell in Johnson County AR which
    has recently strengthened. Additionally, a few more discrete storms
    have begun to develop within the warm sector ahead of the line.=20

    The low-level kinematic environment throughout the warm sector is
    quite impressive. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 0-1 km
    storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across
    north-central/northeast AR. As a result, the threat for tornadoes
    still exists with any more discrete storms that can maintain a
    robust updraft. Strong wind gusts are the primary threat with any
    storms along the front.

    Given the current storm motion, expectation for the severe threat to
    persist, and a watch expiration time of 04Z, an additional watch
    will likely be needed over portions of the region to cover the
    continuing threat.

    ..Mosier.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r-qdci3elw9YdVSE8HAuqGl8eI4tiyaPYO6lyiWxfux_MV2Y-FZELOi7IK8K5JqiEkE7Vql3$=
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    LAT...LON 34749523 35599394 36039345 36419304 36469278 36389108
    34849193 34259277 34339536 34749523=20

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