• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 01:18:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 250117
    SPC MCD 250117=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1895
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0817 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...

    Valid 250117Z - 250315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest tornado threat is currently over southeastern
    Missouri, and is expected to shift into southern Illinois.

    DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells currently extends from Ste.
    Genevieve into Reynolds County MO, with strong mesocyclones noted on
    radar. Storm mode appears complex with substantial precipitation
    ahead of the circulations.=20

    These storms are currently near the instability axis, with MLCAPE
    around 1500 J/kg. Dewpoints rapidly decrease toward the Wabash/Lower
    Ohio Valleys, but favorable instability should remain in place
    toward the MS River and into parts of southern Illinois. Here, 0-1
    SRH exceeds 300 m2/s2, which is quite favorable for tornadoes and
    supercells producing damaging wind gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rLRf91_gRaQ48SA6cnwcdUv-Eg0vcYNTupk6ojxw9DKohik9QFptntuIpF8YiYFtBlhsHA39$=
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    LAT...LON 37028960 36829059 36949122 37239123 37709065 38149057
    38519017 38808910 38698864 38398841 37688907 37028960=20

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