• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1893

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 22:26:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242225
    SPC MCD 242225=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1893
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western into central Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

    Valid 242225Z - 250030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms, including tornadoes,
    continues across Tornado Watch 0531 in central MO, and is expected
    to persist through the remainder of the evening. The greatest short
    term threat is associated with storms immediately ahead of the cold
    front and in proximity to the warm front, though the severe threat
    may increase further south with time.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple sustained semi-discrete supercell structures
    are in progress across portions of north-central into central MO
    immediately ahead of a cold front and within proximity to a diffuse
    warm front. In addition, storms are also attempting to mature
    further south along the cold front into southwest MO, as well as
    with a second confluence zone east of SGF. Tornadoes have been
    reported over the past few hours across northern/central MO with
    storms closer to the warm front, where latest METAR observations
    depict more backed surface flow. These storms have the greatest
    threat of continued tornado potential in the short term.=20

    The low-level jet is expected to intensify going into the evening
    hours across portions of central into eastern MO. 2154Z SGF VWP
    showed over 200 m2/s2 SRH, and these values are expected to
    gradually increase this evening. As such, a tornado threat may
    develop with any sustained supercell structures that manage to
    develop in southern MO. In addition, severe hail and damaging
    rear-flank downdraft winds may also accompany any mature supercells
    as well.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rGw9ebxsnjZ5LdQms-428MmFFppJcPmFQpGDQjFzPd7L0bBgTZq_txY-Iw_7vPXVATG0lmQK$=
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    LAT...LON 37229123 37009191 36959239 37079369 37299445 37989380
    38819329 39769332 40229324 40349240 40219189 40039150
    39729130 39009083 38469093 37809119 37229123=20

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