• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1892

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 22:11:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242211
    SPC MCD 242211=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1892
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 242211Z - 250045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are
    possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other
    storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening
    into southern Illinois and vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front,
    extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this
    line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and
    rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air
    mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may
    result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast
    where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of
    east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening
    as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther
    south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may
    eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells
    and/or QLCS structures.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pupojZZBjyllYNzq0fuSVt7Xc1GccEZbAGX_nzoYN15VtDX34IcE0pVVP5hneOTBk-Q3sTQK$=
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    LAT...LON 39878736 38608821 37938947 37928984 38309034 39229085
    39549096 39859081 40289014 40638953 40958859 41048807
    40948764 40798748 40318736 39878736=20

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