Mesoscale Discussion 1891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...
Valid 242050Z - 242215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat, including the potential for tornadoes,
will probably increase over the next couple of hours across parts of
central and eastern Missouri.
DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms has recently strengthened
from parts of central into northeastern MO. Even with persistent
cloud cover, the airmass downstream is gradually destabilizing as a
surface warm front lifts northward, with MLCAPE generally in the
1000-1500 J/kg range. A 20Z sounding from the University of Missouri
in Columbia shows a strongly veering and strengthening wind profile
with height from the surface through mid levels, with over 350 m2/s2
of effective SRH present. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will be
favorable for sustained supercells. The current, more linear
convection may be slightly elevated at the moment based on recent
radar trends. If any supercell can evolve from this activity, or if
new discrete storm development occurs farther south into central MO,
then the tornado threat would likely increase given the very
favorable low-level shear present.
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