• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1891

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 20:50:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242050
    SPC MCD 242050=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1891
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

    Valid 242050Z - 242215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat, including the potential for tornadoes,
    will probably increase over the next couple of hours across parts of
    central and eastern Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms has recently strengthened
    from parts of central into northeastern MO. Even with persistent
    cloud cover, the airmass downstream is gradually destabilizing as a
    surface warm front lifts northward, with MLCAPE generally in the
    1000-1500 J/kg range. A 20Z sounding from the University of Missouri
    in Columbia shows a strongly veering and strengthening wind profile
    with height from the surface through mid levels, with over 350 m2/s2
    of effective SRH present. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will be
    favorable for sustained supercells. The current, more linear
    convection may be slightly elevated at the moment based on recent
    radar trends. If any supercell can evolve from this activity, or if
    new discrete storm development occurs farther south into central MO,
    then the tornado threat would likely increase given the very
    favorable low-level shear present.

    ..Gleason.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oyiCQKYXFKsIP87mXvr9582K91psyTF33RqC1JSMz33g1VyhNFn0IrzGyr-B-27yXmpzZcJk$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39249080 38919076 38419106 37809163 37469226 37449244
    37849250 38689232 39319197 39559174 39659135 39249080=20

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