Mesoscale Discussion 1890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...Portions of western MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...
Valid 242028Z - 242200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a
few tornadoes, should focus across parts of western Missouri through
5 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is moving over northwestern MO
and the Kansas City metro as of 2020Z. One tornado was reported
earlier with this convection, and the latest VWP from KEAX shows
rapidly strengthening winds in the 0-1 km layer, with nearly 200
m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present. 20Z mesoanalysis shows 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which is more than
sufficient for supercells. Tornadoes will remain possible with this
convection in the short term, especially along/near a surface warm
front which extends from a surface low near the KS/MO border across northern/central MO. Large hail and damaging winds will also be a
concern with any sustained supercell. These storms will move
eastward across parts of western MO over the next hour or two, and
should pose the greatest severe threat across Tornado Watch 531
through 5 PM CDT.
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