• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1890

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 20:29:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242028
    SPC MCD 242028=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1890
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western MO

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

    Valid 242028Z - 242200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a
    few tornadoes, should focus across parts of western Missouri through
    5 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is moving over northwestern MO
    and the Kansas City metro as of 2020Z. One tornado was reported
    earlier with this convection, and the latest VWP from KEAX shows
    rapidly strengthening winds in the 0-1 km layer, with nearly 200
    m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present. 20Z mesoanalysis shows 1500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which is more than
    sufficient for supercells. Tornadoes will remain possible with this
    convection in the short term, especially along/near a surface warm
    front which extends from a surface low near the KS/MO border across northern/central MO. Large hail and damaging winds will also be a
    concern with any sustained supercell. These storms will move
    eastward across parts of western MO over the next hour or two, and
    should pose the greatest severe threat across Tornado Watch 531
    through 5 PM CDT.

    ..Gleason.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s1UhB_RiRMZX7zdcsJKj7LtOS5xzCNynDsgPaCyPPAPxr4h8dLrekVwoevyxbwS7YII0KNA7$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38119457 39319423 39819432 40179436 40159336 39979302
    39239297 38419328 37919350 37789416 37869455 38119457=20

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