• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1889

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 19:41:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241940
    SPC MCD 241940=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1889
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0240 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK and western/northern AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 241940Z - 242115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
    and a few tornadoes should develop this afternoon. Tornado Watch
    issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Even with broken cloud cover remaining over eastern OK
    and western AR this afternoon, the low levels continue to gradually
    destabilize with filtered diurnal heating and low-level moistening.
    An 18Z sounding from SGF in southern MO showed a residual cap just
    below 700 mb. But, with stronger heating to the south in OK/AR,
    latest mesoanalysis shows boundary-layer convective inhibition has
    mostly eroded. Storms will likely develop along or just ahead of a
    surface cold front by 21-22Z (4-5 PM CDT) across northeastern OK and northwestern AR. Around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present
    across the warm sector to sustain intense convection. Even though
    the strongest mid-level winds associated with a low-amplitude
    shortwave trough may tend to be displaced just to the north of this
    region, around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should prove adequate
    for storm organization.

    A mix of supercells and multicells is expected this afternoon and
    evening, posing a threat for both large hail and damaging wind
    gusts. Low-level south-southwesterly winds are not forecast to be
    overly strong across eastern OK and western/northern OK. Still,
    around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH should be enough for some
    low-level rotation with any supercell. There will probably be some
    tendency for storms to congeal into one or more line segments with
    eastward extent into AR this evening, with a greater threat for
    damaging winds. But, embedded tornadic circulations will remain
    possible within the broken line. A Tornado Watch will likely be
    needed by 4 PM CDT to address the increasing severe threat across
    this region.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pz3wPgvP_GIILcI-eMpRR7FaSHCevuQw8Ce13bN_y8EkvlFz8dHOEHQeuRAR12biyHioGycp$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36989467 36459464 36469225 36479114 35259203 33979381
    33959449 34119515 34589564 35319591 36099569 36989467=20

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