• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1886

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 24 02:14:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240214
    SPC MCD 240214=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1886
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0914 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

    Areas affected...far northeast Kansas and southeast
    Nebraska...northern Missouri...far western Illinois and southern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 240214Z - 240445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop around 03Z over
    northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, and persist eastward across
    northern Missouri and into western Illinois. Large hail is possible
    with the strongest cells.

    DISCUSSION...A warm front will gradually lift north across eastern
    KS and MO tonight, with increasing lift as a 50-60 kt low-level jet
    develops. Theta-e advection is forecast to be maximized over
    southeast NE into northern MO, and moistening just off the surface
    should eventually lift the capping inversion seen on 00Z soundings
    between 850 and 700 mb.

    Temperatures aloft become cooler with northern extent, with 500 mb
    values of -12 to -13 C expected over the MCD area. Forecast
    soundings suggest instability will be sufficient to produce hail, in combination with 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sKTFhbWeHQWZhtISbuDfbWc6twXu5nHAe2TQh67rWjI6G3AFp-iyUKt89TKdmGWUPpsgz2aO$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39399238 39459562 39579678 39989727 40029737 40889735
    40889167 40689115 40469091 39599098 39389123 39399238=20

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