• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1885

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 23 21:48:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 232148
    SPC MCD 232148=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1885
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

    Areas affected...South central KS...western OK...southeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232148Z - 232315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development possible along the dryline
    the next couple of hours, with an attendant threat for isolated
    large hail and/or strong outflow gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of areas of
    deepening cumulus and initial orphan anvils along the dryline north
    of Childress TX and southwest of Pratt KS. Surface temperatures in
    the upper 80s with dewpoints of 56-60 suggest that vertical mixing
    has been sufficiently deep to remove convective inhibition in a
    narrow zone along the dryline, such that a storm or two may form
    late this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and
    effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt appear favorable for splitting
    supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and/or strong
    outflow gusts. The main uncertainty is storm coverage given the
    lack of stronger forcing for ascent, and the onset of nocturnal
    cooling and associated increases in convective inhibition. Thus, do
    not anticipate the need for a watch at this point, though a widely
    spaced storm or two could pose a severe threat for a couple of hours
    this evening.

    ..Thompson.. 10/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sjv6CQv5Bc9XKTKySyllGwDZCXKuQjogMKEPi6MTflBBchWqPO35XemKvyB4ENbDs7Zj6jYA$=
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    LAT...LON 38229851 38399844 38409826 38289801 38039806 37679824
    37169854 36629895 35789947 34819989 34770020 34920031
    35180027 36709944 37619879 38229851=20

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