• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1884

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 23 07:24:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 230724
    SPC MCD 230723=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1884
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions
    of northeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230723Z - 231000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development appears
    possible prior to and through daybreak, with perhaps a few storms
    becoming capable of producing severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...Bands of convective development with embedded
    thunderstorms have gradually evolved across the region, aided by
    large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection,
    generally rooted above a cool/stable boundary-layer. Further
    strengthening of west-southwesterly flow (in excess of 40 kt) just
    above the surface through around the 850 mb level is forecast
    through 09-12Z, as a subtle mid-level perturbation digs
    east-southeastward from the higher plains. It appears that this
    will be accompanied by further low-level moistening, in addition to
    enlarging hodographs within the elevated storm inflow layer.=20
    Furthermore, model forecast soundings suggest that increasing lift
    will begin to cool/destabilize an initially relatively warm/stable
    layer near or below 500 mb. As this occurs, a period of
    intensifying discrete storm development appears possible, perhaps
    accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail, before stronger
    convection begins to consolidate and the low-level jet begins to
    weaken after daybreak.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/23/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q7iSgtHCzGcbDo9req8PEnyaPL0oHUgeQOjDGGcLrP93jnLhYIX_YnAxoHHaxI2zf4GnPY_r$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38129664 38009563 37689426 37489391 36989379 36699473
    36739592 37069729 37609735 38129664=20

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