• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1883

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 22 17:27:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221727
    SPC MCD 221726=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1883
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina...southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221726Z - 222000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form around 19Z, and a few may
    become severe. Isolated damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a
    brief/weak tornado will be possible before storms move offshore
    around 00Z.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations show a cold
    front moving south across northern and central NC, with slower
    speeds into southeast VA/northeast NC where a surface low is
    forecast to develop. Lower to mid 60s F dewpoints exist ahead of the
    front, with GPS water vapor sensors indicating up to 1.40" PWAT in

    With the help of heating, MUCAPE will increase to over 1500-2000
    J/kg, beneath 40 kt midlevel southwesterlies. Low-level winds may
    remain relatively backed near the weak low, resulting in sufficient
    hodograph length and SRH to support a supercell or two. Cellular
    storm mode would support marginal hail in this case, and a
    brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out as well.=20

    While a watch is currently not anticipated, environmental trends
    will continue to be monitored.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ty-MTLZLrHtgRuz6tGS4IVXaBVXYYprV647AZQgQtrjN3nMH2U6GpiYWPfuY71eGBxg0NAH_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35667542 35277620 35177724 35607785 36067781 36367748
    36877693 37007644 36957594 36447578 36187568 35667542=20

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