• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1882

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 23:57:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212357
    SPC MCD 212356=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1882
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212356Z - 220200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to
    persist for a couple more hours before storms weaken and the severe
    threat gradually diminishes. Given the expected short duration
    tornado threat, a Tornado Watch issuance remains unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells continue to
    exhibit instances of strong low-level rotation, from Butler County
    PA to Ohio County WV. Multiple TDS signatures were noted with some
    of these storms in the past few minutes via KPBZ dual-polarimetric
    radar data. These storms continue to rotate within an environment
    characterized by weak buoyancy (MLCAPE barely reaching 500 J/kg
    MLCAPE), but with strong low-level shear. Specifically, PBZ VAD
    profiler data have shown consistent elongated hodographs with 200+
    0-1km SRH, with METAR observations also showing some localized
    backing of the surface winds across southwest PA. As such, storm
    organization and periods of low-level rotation/brief tornadoes will
    likely continue for a couple more hours, before boundary-layer
    stabilization results in a gradual waning of the severe threat. A
    Tornado Watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Dial.. 10/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vlWzNQ6g5_p-n0R-XetjzW8qyG1Ch1iik8QQHj58MhDZnMnEjOFtqUmxrloQxLAqDAK3iLaD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39718099 40388039 41097992 41307939 41307862 41137820
    40797816 40637825 40247871 39977907 39817933 39727973
    39628048 39718099=20

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